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Home December 2023 quarter ASX A-REIT market update
January 9, 2024

December 2023 quarter ASX A-REIT market update

Stuart Cartledge, Managing Director, Phoenix Portfolios

 

Market Commentary

The S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Accumulation Index moved substantially higher in the final quarter of 2023, gaining 16.5%. Property stocks meaningfully outperformed broader equities in the quarter, with the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index adding a lessor 8.4%. This outperformance was driven by a large move in bond yields. After hitting a peak of approximately 5.0% during the quarter, the 10 Year Australian Government Bond yield dropped materially, finishing below 4.0%.

Property fund managers earnings are particularly leveraged to movements in bond yields. Given this it is unsurprising that they were major outperformers during the quarter. Charter Hall Group (CHC) had previously materially underperformed as bond rates rose, however recovered strongly, gaining 29.2% over the quarter. Centuria Capital Group (CNI) followed a similar path, rising 32.7% for the quarter. Goodman Group (GMG) as only a marginal outperformer for the period, lifting 18.6%, however had performed stronger earlier in 2023, finishing with a total return of 47.5% for the calendar year. In contrast, despite having a productive period from a business development perspective, property debt fund manager Qualitas Limited (QAL) only added 3.1% as its investment products will not directly benefit from a reduction in interest rates.

Those with exposure to residential property, particularly smaller capitalisation securities, were major underperformers across the December quarter. AV Jennings (AVJ) lost 9.1%, propelled lower by a heavily discounted, and somewhat surprising equity raise. Aspen Group (APZ) underperformed the index, only up 1.9%, with Peet Limited (PPC) similarly gaining only 4.5%. Performance was more robust for large capitalisation residential property developer Stockland (SGP), up 15.6%, just below the index’s strong result.

Office property owners had very mixed results during the period. Leading the way higher was GPT Group (GPT) which rose 22.2% for the quarter. Centuria Office REIT (COF) was also an outperformer, recovering some of its recent underperformance, adding 20.2%. On the other side of the ledger, Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF) lost ground in an absolute sense falling 16.2%, whilst Dexus (DXS) gained only 8.9% after announcing current Chief Investment Officer, Ross Du Vernet will take over from Darren Steinberg as Chief Executive Officer of the company in 2024.

Retail landlords were very strong performers to finish off the year. The major outperformer was Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW), who’s share price shot 47.5% higher. As one of the more financially leveraged stocks in the sector, it is a relative beneficiary of lower global interest rates. Scentre Group (SCG) and Vicinity Centres (VCX) were also outperformers, up 21.5% and 20.4% respectively. Both are beneficiaries of more resilient consumer spending than anticipated, with initial indications of spending across the key Christmas period appearing robust.

In general, smaller capitalisation, non-benchmark property owners were substantial underperformers during the quarter. Each of Desane Group Holdings (DGH), 360 Capital REIT (TOT), Newmark Property REIT (NPR) and Gowings Brothers Limited (GOW) had negative absolute returns despite the movement in the Index and bond yields. In many cases this may be more representative of shorter term supply and demand dynamics for shares rather than underlying business underperformance.

Market outlook

The listed property sector is in good shape and provides investors with the opportunity to gain exposure to high quality commercial real estate at a meaningful discount to independently assessed values. While share market volatility may be uncomfortable at times, the offset is liquidity, enabling investors to rebalance portfolios without the risk of being trapped in illiquid vehicles.

Rising interest rates have been a headwind for many asset classes, with property, both listed and unlisted, a particularly interest rate sensitive sector. The August reporting season saw a number of listed stocks come under pressure as short term interest rates hedges are beginning to roll off and higher interest costs are impacting earnings growth and distributions. Long term valuations are driven by “normalised” interest costs, meaning the impact of short term hedges maturing is mostly immaterial. Should the sharp decline in interest rates seen in December 2023 be sustained, these headwinds may dissipate and possibly reverse.

The industrial sub-sector continues to be the most sought after, given the tailwinds of e-commerce growth, the potential onshoring of key manufacturing categories and the decision by many corporates to build some redundancy into supply chains to cope with current disruptions. All of these factors are contributing to ongoing demand for industrial space, which is evident by rapidly accelerating market rents and vacancy rates at historic lows of around 1% in many markets.

We remain cognisant of the structural changes occurring in the retail sector with the growing penetration of online sales and the greater importance of experiential offering inside malls. Recent performance of shopping centre owners has however been strong, with consumers showing resilience. It is interesting to note the juxtaposition of very high retail sales figures despite very low levels of consumer confidence, no doubt impacted by rising costs of living. Importantly, we are also now seeing positive re-leasing spreads in shopping centres, indicating strengthening demand from retail tenants.

The jury is still out on exactly how tenants will use office space moving forward, but demand for good quality well located space remains. Leasing activity is beginning to pick up, and there has also been some transactional activity, albeit at prices typically at discounts to book values. Incentives on new leases do remain elevated and some vacancy in the market is becoming apparent.

We expect to see further downside to asset values in office markets, but elsewhere expect market rent growth to largely offset cap rate expansion, particularly in industrial assets. Listed pricing provides a meaningful buffer to such movements.

About Stuart Cartledge

Stuart is the Managing Director of Phoenix Portfolios and the portfolio manager for each of the company’s property portfolios. Prior to establishing the business in 2006, Stuart built a strong track record in the listed property security asset class and has been actively managing securities portfolios since 1993. Stuart holds a master’s degree in engineering and management from the University of Birmingham and is a Chartered Financial Analyst.

The content above is taken from the Cromwell Phoenix Property Securities Fund quarterly report. Sign up here to be the first to access the latest report and to gain a deeper insight into the Fund’s performance.

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